This is a response to Bob Beckel's analysis over at RealClearPolitics. Beckel argued Hillary was the best pick for VP and that it's "not even close." I disagree www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/its_not_even_close_obama_shoul.html
Analysis is way off. I'll address it point-by-point
1. Bring Repubs to the Polls: Of course the right-winger radio nuts are going after Obama, but he still has high numbers and those attacks turn off a lot of moderates and Republicans, especialyl because so many have been simply untrue. Hillary galvanizes Republicans, who are not very fired up about this election at all. All my Republican friends say they are not going to volunteer or give money this year and basically sit this one out after McCain got the nomination.
2. Edwards gives bigger boosts in those same areas. Just because Hillary became strong by targetting certain groups (women, hispanics), never meant that Obama was inherently weak in those areas (as seen by his recent boosts). AS far as expanding the map, Obama is doing great at that on his own. A wealthy Northeasterner is actually the last thing Obama needs to win rural Virginia and North Carolina.
3. Hillary = distraction. Unity in message is key. That is what people have learned since 1984. Hillary is actually one of the Democrats with the least personal incentive for Obama to win, so by simply saying her success is dependent on his success is flawed.
4. Bill Clinton disclosures- point well taken. I agree.
5. I disagree, Bill and Hillary are still both very divisive. I think Edwards has the campaign skills in the Appalachians to match either of them.
6. It is not "absurd" to believe that having a scandal-ridden right-wing targetted former President around would be a distraction. It is certainly true.
7. I would rather have her in the Senate. That is where she has proven herself the most. Obama wants to move away from Baby Boomer debates about Vietnam and the excesses of the 1960s. Key to his message (and increasingly so in the general election) is going to be rejecting the Bush/Rove 51% = mandate way of running things. A person like Hillary is best in the Senate and not best in an administration that must immediately restore decency and bipartisanship. Also, Bickel always seems to think that saying the right thing is enough, but voters (especially in the Midwest) want someone who actually believes it too, and we can spot a fraud any day. If Hillary would work her own agenda in the Senate, then Bickel's argument on her being able to be on message on the campaign fails, unless your only standard is for a politician to say the right thing and not actually have a consistent record and conviction on the issue.
8. I agree with this one. Her organization and money raising are incomparable. This is the best argument for her. Her Senate campaign raised so much money, and she has access to so many lists and donor rolls.
9. Bickel reasons that because Republicans are against Hillary on the ticket, that makes it a stronger ticket. This reasoning is why Obama beat Hillary, Obama constantly takes into consideration what Republicans and Independents think. His ability to listen and truly understand what others are saying is his gift. He used it very well as Harvard Law Review Editor and is famous for it. Obama will need the support of lots of Republicans to not only win, but win with a big enough mandate to fix healthcare, restore America's integrity and place in the world, and solve the energy crisis. The days of 51% is good enough are over.
10. "Your vice presidential choice must reek of experience... Can another VP candidate provide that level of comfort." Yes. Wesley Clark. Duh. No question a better record of experience and past success. Take Harvard Law Review Editor (Obama) and top of class at West Point (Clark) and that is a nice ticket. Clark would be far more prepared to take over than Hillary.
-Finally, I would like to say that Obama is someone who genuinely listened to advice from his team. Obama would be wiser to pick Edwards or Clark as far as someone to give great advice. Clinton not only failed to adjust to the new DNC rules which gave more weight to rural areas and decreased winner-take-all primaries, but also failed to adjust to the demand for a change candidate fast enough (as seen after Iowa when Edwards jumped on the change bandwagon and labeled Clinton the status quo candidate). I would much rather get advice from a more experienced leader, or a more perceptive decision-maker.
Just today while I was canvassing-- out talking to real voters-- I talked with a moderate Republican woman who wasn't impressed at all with McCain and her big reservation about Obama is that she was worried he would pick Hillary, in which case she wouldn't vote for Obama. Outside of the polite little political analyst circles, real voters simply are turned off by Hillary, who has very high negative ratings right now.